Target Price Playground
BOX
$21.37
๐ข
BOX IV: 39.4% โ LOW
(-46.5% vs 30d avg of 73.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $24 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $21.37 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $21 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $1.05 ยท ฮ -0.36
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If BOX hits $24 by Jun 19: the protective put returns +$108 (4.8%) on $2,242 risked, vs +$213 (10.0%) for 100 shares on $2,137. Options give 0.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if BOX is at $24. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if BOX hits $24 by Jun 19
+$108
+4.8% on $2,242 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$192
Put floors you at $20
Break-even
$22.42
+4.93% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
58%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
64.22 / -0.98 / 3.42
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| BOX Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $17 (-20%) | -$178 | -$187 | -$194 | -$192 |
| $18 (-15%) | -$152 | -$167 | -$184 | -$192 |
| $19 (-10%) | -$113 | -$134 | -$160 | -$192 |
| $20 (-5%) | -$63 | -$86 | -$118 | -$192 |
| $21 (-2%) | -$26 | -$51 | -$82 | -$148 |
| $21 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | -$24 | -$55 | -$105 |
| $22 (+2%) | +$29 | +$5 | -$24 | -$62 |
| $22 (+5%) | +$74 | +$52 | +$26 | +$2 |
| $24 (+10%) โ target | +$156 | +$138 | +$119 | +$108 |
| $25 (+15%) | +$247 | +$233 | +$220 | +$216 |
| $26 (+20%) | +$342 | +$331 | +$324 | +$322 |
Uses BOX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.