Target Price Playground
BOX
$21.37
๐ข
BOX IV: 39.4% โ LOW
(-46.5% vs 30d avg of 73.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $25 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $22 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $1.58 ยท ฮ 0.54
LONG PUT ยท $22 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $1.53 ยท ฮ -0.46
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If BOX hits $25 by Jun 19: the long straddle returns $-10 (-3.4%) on $310 risked, vs +$313 (14.6%) for 100 shares on $2,137. Options give 0.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if BOX is at $25. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if BOX hits $25 by Jun 19
$-10
-3.4% on $310 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$310
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$18.40
-13.92% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
42%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
8.23 / -2.29 / 7.27
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| BOX Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $17 (-20%) | +$150 | +$134 | +$125 | +$129 |
| $18 (-15%) | +$80 | +$52 | +$28 | +$23 |
| $19 (-10%) | +$30 | -$11 | -$55 | -$84 |
| $20 (-5%) | +$3 | -$48 | -$110 | -$191 |
| $21 (-2%) | -$2 | -$56 | -$126 | -$255 |
| $21 (0%) โ spot | -$1 | -$56 | -$128 | -$298 |
| $22 (+2%) | +$5 | -$51 | -$124 | -$281 |
| $22 (+5%) | +$20 | -$36 | -$107 | -$217 |
| $24 (+10%) | +$60 | +$9 | -$52 | -$110 |
| $25 (+15%) โ target | +$114 | +$68 | +$20 | -$11 |
| $26 (+20%) | +$190 | +$153 | +$119 | +$103 |
Uses BOX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.