Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If BRZE hits $20 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$34 (2.0%) on $-34 credit (max loss $1,716), vs +$103 (5.4%) for 100 shares on $1,897. Options give 0.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if BRZE is at $20. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| BRZE Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $15 (-20%) | -$200 | -$196 | -$195 | -$198 |
| $16 (-15%) | -$127 | -$118 | -$109 | -$104 |
| $17 (-10%) | -$69 | -$56 | -$39 | -$9 |
| $18 (-5%) | -$27 | -$14 | +$4 | +$34 |
| $19 (-2%) | -$9 | +$3 | +$19 | +$34 |
| $19 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$12 | +$25 | +$34 |
| $19 (+2%) | +$8 | +$18 | +$29 | +$34 |
| $20 (+5%) โ target | +$18 | +$25 | +$32 | +$34 |
| $21 (+10%) | +$26 | +$31 | +$34 | +$34 |
| $22 (+15%) | +$30 | +$33 | +$34 | +$34 |
| $23 (+20%) | +$32 | +$34 | +$34 | +$34 |