Target Price Playground

Templates Custom Builder
CAT
$790.66
๐ŸŸข
CAT IV: 38.6% โ€” LOW (-43.0% vs 30d avg of 67.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ€” good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection If price hits $830 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest Coming soon
Signal Backtest Coming soon

๐Ÿ“‹ Strategy

Sell OTM put for premium; get assigned if price drops.

๐ŸŽฏ Target

67d from today

โš™๏ธ Legs

SHORT PUT ยท $730 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $27.85 ยท ฮ” -0.29
P&L at Expiry Now $791 Target $830 $553 $791 $1028
Stock (100 sh) Cash-Secured Put Now Target
๐Ÿ’ก Stock vs Options at Target

If CAT hits $830 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$2,785 (4.0%) on $-2,785 credit (max loss $70,215), vs +$3,934 (5.0%) for 100 shares on $79,066. Options give 0.8ร— capital efficiency.

๐Ÿ“… Expiry

Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CAT is at $830. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.

๐Ÿ“Š Projected Return

P&L if CAT hits $830 by Jun 19
+$2,785
+4.0% on $70,215 max loss
Max Profit
+$2,785
If the stock โ‰ฅ $730 at expiry
Max Loss
โˆ’$70,215
If stock โ†’ $0 after assignment
Break-even
$702.15
-11.19% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
76%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ” / ฮ˜ / V
28.51 / 34.81 / -110.4
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐Ÿ’พ Log in to save ๐Ÿ“Š My Saved Strategies

๐Ÿ“‹ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)

Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ€” ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โ‰ฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.

๐Ÿ“Š P&L Scenarios โ€” what happens at different prices and dates

CAT Price Today May 5 May 27 Jun 19 (exp)
$633 (-20%) -$7,658 -$7,293 -$6,969 -$6,962
$672 (-15%) -$4,859 -$4,274 -$3,578 -$3,009
$712 (-10%) -$2,580 -$1,850 -$883 +$944
$751 (-5%) -$827 -$63 +$945 +$2,785
$775 (-2%) -$10 +$725 +$1,651 +$2,785
$791 (0%) โ† spot +$448 +$1,146 +$1,986 +$2,785
$806 (+2%) +$842 +$1,494 +$2,236 +$2,785
$830 (+5%) โ† target +$1,326 +$1,896 +$2,483 +$2,785
$870 (+10%) +$1,909 +$2,333 +$2,686 +$2,785
$909 (+15%) +$2,274 +$2,567 +$2,756 +$2,785
$949 (+20%) +$2,496 +$2,685 +$2,778 +$2,785
Uses CAT's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.