Target Price Playground
CAT
$790.66
๐ข
CAT IV: 38.6% โ LOW
(-43.0% vs 30d avg of 67.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $850 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $790.66 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $850 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $31.0 ยท ฮ 0.37
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If CAT hits $850 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$9,034 (11.9%) on $75,966 risked, vs +$5,934 (7.5%) for 100 shares on $79,066. Options give 1.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CAT is at $850. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if CAT hits $850 by Jun 19
+$9,034
+11.9% on $75,966 risked
Max Profit
+$9,034
If the stock โฅ $850 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$75,966
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$759.66
-3.92% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
65%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
62.89 / 38.48 / -122.71
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| CAT Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $633 (-20%) | -$12,912 | -$12,769 | -$12,715 | -$12,713 |
| $672 (-15%) | -$9,241 | -$8,948 | -$8,780 | -$8,760 |
| $712 (-10%) | -$5,815 | -$5,311 | -$4,912 | -$4,807 |
| $751 (-5%) | -$2,727 | -$1,987 | -$1,243 | -$853 |
| $775 (-2%) | -$1,069 | -$197 | +$773 | +$1,519 |
| $791 (0%) โ spot | -$52 | +$896 | +$2,007 | +$3,100 |
| $806 (+2%) | +$892 | +$1,905 | +$3,137 | +$4,681 |
| $830 (+5%) | +$2,170 | +$3,253 | +$4,615 | +$7,053 |
| $850 (+8%) โ target | +$3,112 | +$4,226 | +$5,640 | +$9,034 |
| $870 (+10%) | +$3,940 | +$5,061 | +$6,473 | +$9,034 |
| $909 (+15%) | +$5,294 | +$6,363 | +$7,635 | +$9,034 |
| $949 (+20%) | +$6,289 | +$7,244 | +$8,273 | +$9,034 |
Uses CAT's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.