Target Price Playground
CAT
$790.66
๐ข
CAT IV: 37.9% โ LOW
(-44.0% vs 30d avg of 67.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $870 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $790.66 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $750 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $33.85 ยท ฮ -0.34
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If CAT hits $870 by Jun 19: the protective put returns +$4,549 (5.5%) on $82,451 risked, vs +$7,934 (10.0%) for 100 shares on $79,066. Options give 0.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CAT is at $870. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if CAT hits $870 by Jun 19
+$4,549
+5.5% on $82,451 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$7,451
Put floors you at $750
Break-even
$824.51
+4.28% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
54%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
66.32 / -36.76 / 128.35
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| CAT Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $633 (-20%) | -$7,095 | -$7,365 | -$7,551 | -$7,451 |
| $672 (-15%) | -$6,151 | -$6,656 | -$7,199 | -$7,451 |
| $712 (-10%) | -$4,725 | -$5,416 | -$6,301 | -$7,451 |
| $751 (-5%) | -$2,780 | -$3,562 | -$4,608 | -$7,338 |
| $775 (-2%) | -$1,373 | -$2,156 | -$3,185 | -$4,966 |
| $791 (0%) โ spot | -$342 | -$1,106 | -$2,081 | -$3,385 |
| $806 (+2%) | +$759 | +$27 | -$870 | -$1,804 |
| $830 (+5%) | +$2,527 | +$1,863 | +$1,111 | +$568 |
| $870 (+10%) โ target | +$5,762 | +$5,240 | +$4,746 | +$4,549 |
| $909 (+15%) | +$9,208 | +$8,828 | +$8,539 | +$8,475 |
| $949 (+20%) | +$12,857 | +$12,598 | +$12,446 | +$12,428 |
Uses CAT's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.