Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If CDNS hits $280 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$1,102 (4.7%) on $-1,102 credit (max loss $23,398), vs +$1,434 (5.4%) for 100 shares on $26,566. Options give 0.9ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CDNS is at $280. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| CDNS Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $213 (-20%) | -$2,558 | -$2,383 | -$2,205 | -$2,145 |
| $226 (-15%) | -$1,666 | -$1,420 | -$1,119 | -$817 |
| $239 (-10%) | -$929 | -$639 | -$255 | +$511 |
| $252 (-5%) | -$346 | -$44 | +$354 | +$1,102 |
| $260 (-2%) | -$64 | +$230 | +$604 | +$1,102 |
| $266 (0%) โ spot | +$98 | +$381 | +$730 | +$1,102 |
| $271 (+2%) | +$241 | +$511 | +$828 | +$1,102 |
| $280 (+5%) โ target | +$445 | +$686 | +$945 | +$1,102 |
| $292 (+10%) | +$654 | +$851 | +$1,033 | +$1,102 |
| $306 (+15%) | +$812 | +$962 | +$1,076 | +$1,102 |
| $319 (+20%) | +$918 | +$1,027 | +$1,093 | +$1,102 |