Target Price Playground
CEG
$282.19
๐ข
CEG IV: 47.9% โ LOW
(-30.7% vs 30d avg of 69.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $315 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $280 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $29.86 ยท ฮ 0.58
SHORT CALL ยท $305 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $15.53 ยท ฮ 0.41
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If CEG hits $315 by Jun 19: the bull call spread returns +$1,067 (74.5%) on $1,433 risked, vs +$3,281 (11.6%) for 100 shares on $28,219. Options give 6.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CEG is at $315. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if CEG hits $315 by Jun 19
+$1,067
+74.5% on $1,433 risked
Max Profit
+$1,067
If the stock โฅ $305 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$1,433
Net debit
Break-even
$294.33
+4.3% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
58%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
17.15 / -1.19 / 1.0
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| CEG Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $226 (-20%) | -$1,190 | -$1,281 | -$1,389 | -$1,433 |
| $240 (-15%) | -$1,043 | -$1,145 | -$1,302 | -$1,433 |
| $254 (-10%) | -$859 | -$953 | -$1,128 | -$1,433 |
| $268 (-5%) | -$648 | -$713 | -$854 | -$1,433 |
| $277 (-2%) | -$513 | -$553 | -$649 | -$1,433 |
| $282 (0%) โ spot | -$422 | -$443 | -$501 | -$1,214 |
| $288 (+2%) | -$331 | -$332 | -$349 | -$650 |
| $296 (+5%) | -$195 | -$167 | -$119 | +$197 |
| $310 (+10%) | +$21 | +$96 | +$237 | +$1,067 |
| $315 (+12%) โ target | +$88 | +$175 | +$340 | +$1,067 |
| $325 (+15%) | +$219 | +$328 | +$529 | +$1,067 |
| $339 (+20%) | +$392 | +$522 | +$741 | +$1,067 |
Uses CEG's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.