Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If CEG hits $295 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$1,280 (5.2%) on $-1,280 credit (max loss $24,720), vs +$1,281 (4.5%) for 100 shares on $28,219. Options give 1.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CEG is at $295. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| CEG Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $226 (-20%) | -$2,732 | -$2,506 | -$2,263 | -$2,145 |
| $240 (-15%) | -$1,816 | -$1,518 | -$1,147 | -$734 |
| $254 (-10%) | -$1,053 | -$710 | -$257 | +$677 |
| $268 (-5%) | -$438 | -$83 | +$384 | +$1,280 |
| $277 (-2%) | -$135 | +$213 | +$658 | +$1,280 |
| $282 (0%) โ spot | +$42 | +$380 | +$800 | +$1,280 |
| $288 (+2%) | +$200 | +$525 | +$914 | +$1,280 |
| $295 (+5%) โ target | +$376 | +$680 | +$1,025 | +$1,280 |
| $310 (+10%) | +$673 | +$924 | +$1,171 | +$1,280 |
| $325 (+15%) | +$865 | +$1,066 | +$1,233 | +$1,280 |
| $339 (+20%) | +$1,001 | +$1,155 | +$1,261 | +$1,280 |