Target Price Playground
CEG
$282.19
๐ข
CEG IV: 47.9% โ LOW
(-30.7% vs 30d avg of 69.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $315 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $280 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $29.86 ยท ฮ 0.58
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If CEG hits $315 by Jun 19: the long call returns +$514 (17.2%) on $2,986 risked, vs +$3,281 (11.6%) for 100 shares on $28,219. Options give 1.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CEG is at $315. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if CEG hits $315 by Jun 19
+$514
+17.2% on $2,986 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$2,986
Premium paid
Break-even
$309.86
+9.81% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
58%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
58.16 / -19.55 / 48.0
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| CEG Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $226 (-20%) | -$2,543 | -$2,757 | -$2,934 | -$2,986 |
| $240 (-15%) | -$2,217 | -$2,517 | -$2,822 | -$2,986 |
| $254 (-10%) | -$1,759 | -$2,136 | -$2,575 | -$2,986 |
| $268 (-5%) | -$1,161 | -$1,592 | -$2,132 | -$2,986 |
| $277 (-2%) | -$734 | -$1,183 | -$1,757 | -$2,986 |
| $282 (0%) โ spot | -$422 | -$878 | -$1,460 | -$2,767 |
| $288 (+2%) | -$89 | -$547 | -$1,127 | -$2,203 |
| $296 (+5%) | +$449 | -$3 | -$563 | -$1,356 |
| $310 (+10%) | +$1,437 | +$1,013 | +$521 | +$55 |
| $315 (+12%) โ target | +$1,781 | +$1,370 | +$905 | +$514 |
| $325 (+15%) | +$2,525 | +$2,144 | +$1,741 | +$1,466 |
| $339 (+20%) | +$3,695 | +$3,364 | +$3,049 | +$2,877 |
Uses CEG's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.