Target Price Playground
CIEN
$496.02
๐ข
CIEN IV: 77.7% โ LOW
(-27.6% vs 30d avg of 107.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $560 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $495 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $70.27 ยท ฮ 0.58
SHORT CALL ยท $540 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $63.1 ยท ฮ 0.51
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If CIEN hits $560 by Jun 19: the bull call spread returns +$3,783 (527.6%) on $717 risked, vs +$6,398 (12.9%) for 100 shares on $49,602. Options give 40.9ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CIEN is at $560. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if CIEN hits $560 by Jun 19
+$3,783
+527.6% on $717 risked
Max Profit
+$3,783
If the stock โฅ $540 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$717
Net debit
Break-even
$502.17
+1.24% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
71%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
6.57 / 6.06 / -5.07
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| CIEN Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $397 (-20%) | +$88 | -$64 | -$345 | -$717 |
| $422 (-15%) | +$309 | +$179 | -$98 | -$717 |
| $446 (-10%) | +$546 | +$451 | +$222 | -$717 |
| $471 (-5%) | +$791 | +$744 | +$598 | -$717 |
| $486 (-2%) | +$940 | +$924 | +$843 | -$717 |
| $496 (0%) โ spot | +$1,040 | +$1,045 | +$1,010 | -$615 |
| $506 (+2%) | +$1,138 | +$1,166 | +$1,178 | +$377 |
| $521 (+5%) | +$1,285 | +$1,346 | +$1,431 | +$1,865 |
| $546 (+10%) | +$1,524 | +$1,638 | +$1,837 | +$3,783 |
| $560 (+13%) โ target | +$1,657 | +$1,800 | +$2,059 | +$3,783 |
| $570 (+15%) | +$1,751 | +$1,914 | +$2,211 | +$3,783 |
| $595 (+20%) | +$1,966 | +$2,169 | +$2,541 | +$3,783 |
Uses CIEN's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.