Target Price Playground
CIEN
$496.02
๐ข
CIEN IV: 77.7% โ LOW
(-27.6% vs 30d avg of 107.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $435 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $495 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $65.18 ยท ฮ -0.42
SHORT PUT ยท $455 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $44.98 ยท ฮ -0.33
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If CIEN hits $435 by Jun 19: the bear put spread returns +$1,981 (98.1%) on $2,019 risked, vs $-6,102 (-12.3%) for 100 shares on $49,602. Options give 8.0ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CIEN is at $435. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if CIEN hits $435 by Jun 19
+$1,981
+98.1% on $2,019 risked
Max Profit
+$1,981
If the stock โค $455 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$2,019
Net debit
Break-even
$474.81
-4.28% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
72%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-9.21 / -2.99 / 6.32
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| CIEN Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $397 (-20%) | +$946 | +$1,060 | +$1,303 | +$1,980 |
| $422 (-15%) | +$712 | +$786 | +$965 | +$1,980 |
| $435 (-12%) โ target | +$582 | +$631 | +$761 | +$1,980 |
| $446 (-10%) | +$472 | +$497 | +$579 | +$1,980 |
| $471 (-5%) | +$232 | +$204 | +$172 | +$358 |
| $486 (-2%) | +$92 | +$31 | -$70 | -$1,130 |
| $496 (0%) โ spot | -$1 | -$82 | -$227 | -$2,020 |
| $506 (+2%) | -$91 | -$192 | -$380 | -$2,020 |
| $521 (+5%) | -$223 | -$352 | -$596 | -$2,020 |
| $546 (+10%) | -$432 | -$601 | -$919 | -$2,020 |
| $570 (+15%) | -$625 | -$825 | -$1,189 | -$2,020 |
| $595 (+20%) | -$801 | -$1,024 | -$1,407 | -$2,020 |
Uses CIEN's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.