Target Price Playground

Templates Custom Builder
CIEN
$496.02
๐ŸŸข
CIEN IV: 77.7% โ€” LOW (-27.6% vs 30d avg of 107.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ€” good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection If price hits $470 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest Coming soon
Signal Backtest Coming soon

๐Ÿ“‹ Strategy

Long Stock Long Call Long Put Bull Call Spread Bear Put Spread Covered Call Protective Put Cash-Secured Put Diagonal Put Spread Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.

๐ŸŽฏ Target

67d from today

โš™๏ธ Legs

LONG PUT ยท $495 ยท Jul '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $76.96 ยท ฮ” -0.41
SHORT PUT ยท $470 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $61.2 ยท ฮ” -0.35
P&L at Expiry Now $496 Target $470 $347 $496 $645
Stock (100 sh) Diagonal Put Spread Now Target
๐Ÿ’ก Stock vs Options at Target

If CIEN hits $470 by Jun 19: the diagonal put spread returns +$3,972 (252.1%) on $1,576 risked, vs $-2,602 (-5.2%) for 100 shares on $49,602. Options give 48.5ร— capital efficiency.

๐Ÿ“… Expiry

Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CIEN is at $470. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.

๐Ÿ“Š Projected Return

P&L if CIEN hits $470 by Jun 19
+$3,972
+252.1% on $1,576 risked
Max Profit
+$3,971
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โˆ’$870
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$582.80
+17.5% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
88%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ” / ฮ˜ / V
-5.71 / 13.53 / 16.4
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐Ÿ’พ Log in to save ๐Ÿ“Š My Saved Strategies

๐Ÿ“‹ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)

Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ€” ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โ‰ฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.

๐Ÿ“Š P&L Scenarios โ€” what happens at different prices and dates

CIEN Price Today May 5 May 27 Jun 19 (exp)
$397 (-20%) +$1,157 +$1,334 +$1,592 +$1,615
$422 (-15%) +$1,134 +$1,339 +$1,685 +$2,197
$446 (-10%) +$1,083 +$1,301 +$1,698 +$2,997
$470 (-5%) โ† target +$1,011 +$1,225 +$1,629 +$3,972
$486 (-2%) +$951 +$1,154 +$1,538 +$3,148
$496 (0%) โ† spot +$909 +$1,103 +$1,466 +$2,688
$506 (+2%) +$865 +$1,048 +$1,384 +$2,264
$521 (+5%) +$794 +$956 +$1,244 +$1,689
$546 (+10%) +$665 +$787 +$978 +$888
$570 (+15%) +$527 +$604 +$688 +$258
$595 (+20%) +$384 +$414 +$395 -$228
Uses CIEN's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.