Target Price Playground
CIEN
$496.02
๐ข
CIEN IV: 77.7% โ LOW
(-27.6% vs 30d avg of 107.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $560 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $495 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $70.27 ยท ฮ 0.58
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If CIEN hits $560 by Jun 19: the long call returns $-527 (-7.5%) on $7,027 risked, vs +$6,398 (12.9%) for 100 shares on $49,602. Options give 0.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CIEN is at $560. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if CIEN hits $560 by Jun 19
$-527
-7.5% on $7,027 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$7,027
Premium paid
Break-even
$565.27
+13.96% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
71%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
58.03 / -52.68 / 83.06
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| CIEN Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $397 (-20%) | -$4,540 | -$5,426 | -$6,387 | -$7,027 |
| $422 (-15%) | -$3,643 | -$4,669 | -$5,877 | -$7,027 |
| $446 (-10%) | -$2,584 | -$3,725 | -$5,141 | -$7,027 |
| $471 (-5%) | -$1,367 | -$2,590 | -$4,155 | -$7,027 |
| $486 (-2%) | -$564 | -$1,821 | -$3,441 | -$7,027 |
| $496 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | -$1,273 | -$2,915 | -$6,925 |
| $506 (+2%) | +$587 | -$697 | -$2,350 | -$5,933 |
| $521 (+5%) | +$1,507 | +$217 | -$1,434 | -$4,445 |
| $546 (+10%) | +$3,143 | +$1,863 | +$265 | -$1,965 |
| $560 (+13%) โ target | +$4,146 | +$2,883 | +$1,337 | -$527 |
| $570 (+15%) | +$4,895 | +$3,649 | +$2,149 | +$515 |
| $595 (+20%) | +$6,750 | +$5,557 | +$4,185 | +$2,995 |
Uses CIEN's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.