Target Price Playground
CIEN
$496.02
๐ข
CIEN IV: 77.7% โ LOW
(-27.6% vs 30d avg of 107.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $435 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $495 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $65.18 ยท ฮ -0.42
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If CIEN hits $435 by Jun 19: the long put returns $-518 (-7.9%) on $6,518 risked, vs $-6,102 (-12.3%) for 100 shares on $49,602. Options give 0.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CIEN is at $435. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if CIEN hits $435 by Jun 19
$-518
-7.9% on $6,518 risked
Max Profit
+$42,982
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$6,518
Premium paid
Break-even
$429.82
-13.35% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
72%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-41.97 / -46.62 / 83.06
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| CIEN Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $397 (-20%) | +$5,380 | +$4,628 | +$3,800 | +$3,300 |
| $422 (-15%) | +$3,797 | +$2,904 | +$1,829 | +$820 |
| $435 (-12%) โ target | +$3,010 | +$2,052 | +$859 | -$518 |
| $446 (-10%) | +$2,376 | +$1,369 | +$86 | -$1,660 |
| $471 (-5%) | +$1,113 | +$23 | -$1,408 | -$4,140 |
| $486 (-2%) | +$428 | -$696 | -$2,182 | -$5,628 |
| $496 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | -$1,140 | -$2,648 | -$6,518 |
| $506 (+2%) | -$405 | -$1,556 | -$3,075 | -$6,518 |
| $521 (+5%) | -$973 | -$2,130 | -$3,647 | -$6,518 |
| $546 (+10%) | -$1,817 | -$2,964 | -$4,428 | -$6,518 |
| $570 (+15%) | -$2,545 | -$3,658 | -$5,024 | -$6,518 |
| $595 (+20%) | -$3,170 | -$4,229 | -$5,468 | -$6,518 |
Uses CIEN's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.