Target Price Playground
CIEN
$496.02
๐ข
CIEN IV: 77.7% โ LOW
(-27.6% vs 30d avg of 107.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $560 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy shares and hold. Unlimited upside, full downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $496.02 ยท ฮ 1.00
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Stock
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If CIEN hits $560 by Jun 19: the long stock returns +$6,398 (12.9%) on $49,602 risked, vs $ (None%) for 100 shares on $.
๐ Expiry
Stock-only position โ no expiry. Target date is Jun 19.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if CIEN hits $560 by Jun 19
+$6,398
+12.9% on $49,602 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$49,602
If stock โ $0
Break-even
$496.02
+0.0% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
71%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
100.0 / 0.0 / 0.0
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| CIEN Price | Today | May 13 | Jun 12 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|
| $397 (-20%) | -$9,920 | -$9,920 | -$9,920 |
| $422 (-15%) | -$7,440 | -$7,440 | -$7,440 |
| $446 (-10%) | -$4,960 | -$4,960 | -$4,960 |
| $471 (-5%) | -$2,480 | -$2,480 | -$2,480 |
| $486 (-2%) | -$992 | -$992 | -$992 |
| $496 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$0 | +$0 |
| $506 (+2%) | +$992 | +$992 | +$992 |
| $521 (+5%) | +$2,480 | +$2,480 | +$2,480 |
| $546 (+10%) | +$4,960 | +$4,960 | +$4,960 |
| $560 (+13%) โ target | +$6,398 | +$6,398 | +$6,398 |
| $570 (+15%) | +$7,440 | +$7,440 | +$7,440 |
| $595 (+20%) | +$9,920 | +$9,920 | +$9,920 |
Uses CIEN's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.