Target Price Playground
CIEN
$496.02
๐ข
CIEN IV: 77.7% โ LOW
(-27.6% vs 30d avg of 107.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $550 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $496.02 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $470 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $61.2 ยท ฮ -0.35
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If CIEN hits $550 by Jun 19: the protective put returns $-722 (-1.3%) on $55,722 risked, vs +$5,398 (10.9%) for 100 shares on $49,602. Options give 0.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CIEN is at $550. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if CIEN hits $550 by Jun 19
$-722
-1.3% on $55,722 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$8,722
Put floors you at $470
Break-even
$557.22
+12.34% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
75%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
65.16 / -51.75 / 81.71
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| CIEN Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $397 (-20%) | -$6,032 | -$6,862 | -$7,848 | -$8,722 |
| $422 (-15%) | -$4,993 | -$5,940 | -$7,141 | -$8,722 |
| $446 (-10%) | -$3,787 | -$4,819 | -$6,173 | -$8,722 |
| $471 (-5%) | -$2,422 | -$3,504 | -$4,937 | -$8,600 |
| $486 (-2%) | -$1,531 | -$2,627 | -$4,072 | -$7,112 |
| $496 (0%) โ spot | -$910 | -$2,008 | -$3,447 | -$6,120 |
| $506 (+2%) | -$266 | -$1,363 | -$2,786 | -$5,128 |
| $521 (+5%) | +$737 | -$349 | -$1,731 | -$3,640 |
| $550 (+11%) โ target | +$2,828 | +$1,788 | +$531 | -$722 |
| $570 (+15%) | +$4,379 | +$3,386 | +$2,240 | +$1,320 |
| $595 (+20%) | +$6,347 | +$5,422 | +$4,422 | +$3,800 |
Uses CIEN's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.