Target Price Playground
CIEN
$496.02
๐ข
CIEN IV: 77.7% โ LOW
(-27.6% vs 30d avg of 107.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $570 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $495 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $70.27 ยท ฮ 0.58
LONG PUT ยท $495 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $65.18 ยท ฮ -0.42
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If CIEN hits $570 by Jun 19: the long straddle returns $-6,045 (-44.6%) on $13,545 risked, vs +$7,398 (14.9%) for 100 shares on $49,602. Options give 3.0ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CIEN is at $570. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if CIEN hits $570 by Jun 19
$-6,045
-44.6% on $13,545 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$13,545
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$630.45
+27.1% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
67%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
16.06 / -99.3 / 166.12
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| CIEN Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $397 (-20%) | +$840 | -$798 | -$2,587 | -$3,727 |
| $422 (-15%) | +$153 | -$1,766 | -$4,048 | -$6,207 |
| $446 (-10%) | -$208 | -$2,356 | -$5,055 | -$8,687 |
| $471 (-5%) | -$255 | -$2,568 | -$5,562 | -$11,167 |
| $486 (-2%) | -$137 | -$2,517 | -$5,623 | -$12,655 |
| $496 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | -$2,412 | -$5,563 | -$13,443 |
| $506 (+2%) | +$181 | -$2,252 | -$5,425 | -$12,451 |
| $521 (+5%) | +$535 | -$1,913 | -$5,080 | -$10,963 |
| $546 (+10%) | +$1,326 | -$1,100 | -$4,164 | -$8,483 |
| $570 (+15%) โ target | +$2,331 | -$29 | -$2,900 | -$6,045 |
| $595 (+20%) | +$3,581 | +$1,328 | -$1,283 | -$3,523 |
Uses CIEN's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.