Target Price Playground
CIEN
$496.02
๐ข
CIEN IV: 77.7% โ LOW
(-27.6% vs 30d avg of 107.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $540 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $496.02 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $540 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $63.1 ยท ฮ 0.51
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If CIEN hits $540 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$10,708 (24.7%) on $43,292 risked, vs +$4,398 (8.9%) for 100 shares on $49,602. Options give 2.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CIEN is at $540. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if CIEN hits $540 by Jun 19
+$10,708
+24.7% on $43,292 risked
Max Profit
+$10,708
If the stock โฅ $540 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$43,292
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$432.92
-12.72% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
80%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
48.54 / 58.74 / -88.13
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| CIEN Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $397 (-20%) | -$5,292 | -$4,559 | -$3,879 | -$3,610 |
| $422 (-15%) | -$3,487 | -$2,592 | -$1,660 | -$1,130 |
| $446 (-10%) | -$1,830 | -$784 | +$403 | +$1,350 |
| $471 (-5%) | -$321 | +$854 | +$2,273 | +$3,830 |
| $486 (-2%) | +$513 | +$1,753 | +$3,291 | +$5,318 |
| $496 (0%) โ spot | +$1,040 | +$2,318 | +$3,925 | +$6,310 |
| $506 (+2%) | +$1,544 | +$2,855 | +$4,521 | +$7,302 |
| $521 (+5%) | +$2,258 | +$3,609 | +$5,344 | +$8,790 |
| $540 (+9%) โ target | +$3,107 | +$4,493 | +$6,283 | +$10,708 |
| $546 (+10%) | +$3,340 | +$4,734 | +$6,532 | +$10,708 |
| $570 (+15%) | +$4,296 | +$5,704 | +$7,502 | +$10,708 |
| $595 (+20%) | +$5,135 | +$6,532 | +$8,276 | +$10,708 |
Uses CIEN's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.