Target Price Playground
CIFR
$16.53
๐ข
CIFR IV: 98.5% โ LOW
(-25.5% vs 30d avg of 132.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $15 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $17 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $2.76 ยท ฮ -0.4
SHORT PUT ยท $15 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $1.98 ยท ฮ -0.31
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If CIFR hits $15 by Jun 19: the bear put spread returns +$72 (91.2%) on $78 risked, vs $-203 (-12.3%) for 100 shares on $1,653. Options give 7.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CIFR is at $15. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if CIFR hits $15 by Jun 19
+$72
+91.2% on $78 risked
Max Profit
+$72
If the stock โค $15 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$78
Net debit
Break-even
$15.72
-4.93% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
78%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-9.12 / -0.01 / 0.1
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| CIFR Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $13 (-20%) | +$30 | +$33 | +$40 | +$72 |
| $14 (-15%) | +$23 | +$24 | +$28 | +$72 |
| $15 (-12%) โ target | +$19 | +$19 | +$22 | +$72 |
| $15 (-10%) | +$16 | +$15 | +$16 | +$72 |
| $16 (-5%) | +$9 | +$7 | +$4 | +$2 |
| $16 (-2%) | +$4 | +$2 | -$3 | -$48 |
| $17 (0%) โ spot | +$2 | -$2 | -$8 | -$78 |
| $17 (+2%) | -$1 | -$5 | -$12 | -$78 |
| $17 (+5%) | -$5 | -$10 | -$19 | -$78 |
| $18 (+10%) | -$11 | -$17 | -$29 | -$78 |
| $19 (+15%) | -$17 | -$24 | -$38 | -$78 |
| $20 (+20%) | -$23 | -$31 | -$45 | -$78 |
Uses CIFR's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.