Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If CIFR hits $18 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$198 (15.2%) on $-198 credit (max loss $1,302), vs +$97 (5.9%) for 100 shares on $1,653. Options give 2.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CIFR is at $18. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| CIFR Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $13 (-20%) | -$137 | -$98 | -$49 | +$20 |
| $14 (-15%) | -$96 | -$54 | +$0 | +$103 |
| $15 (-10%) | -$59 | -$16 | +$42 | +$186 |
| $16 (-5%) | -$27 | +$17 | +$76 | +$198 |
| $16 (-2%) | -$10 | +$35 | +$94 | +$198 |
| $17 (0%) โ spot | +$1 | +$46 | +$104 | +$198 |
| $17 (+2%) | +$12 | +$56 | +$114 | +$198 |
| $18 (+6%) โ target | +$30 | +$74 | +$130 | +$198 |
| $18 (+10%) | +$48 | +$91 | +$144 | +$198 |
| $19 (+15%) | +$67 | +$109 | +$158 | +$198 |
| $20 (+20%) | +$84 | +$124 | +$168 | +$198 |