Target Price Playground
CIFR
$16.53
๐ข
CIFR IV: 98.5% โ LOW
(-25.5% vs 30d avg of 132.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $18 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $16.53 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $18 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $2.6 ยท ฮ 0.53
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If CIFR hits $18 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$407 (29.2%) on $1,393 risked, vs +$147 (8.9%) for 100 shares on $1,653. Options give 3.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CIFR is at $18. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if CIFR hits $18 by Jun 19
+$407
+29.2% on $1,393 risked
Max Profit
+$407
If the stock โฅ $18 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$1,393
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$13.93
-15.73% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
84%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
46.59 / 2.25 / -2.91
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| CIFR Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $13 (-20%) | -$168 | -$132 | -$93 | -$71 |
| $14 (-15%) | -$114 | -$72 | -$25 | +$12 |
| $15 (-10%) | -$63 | -$17 | +$39 | +$95 |
| $16 (-5%) | -$18 | +$32 | +$95 | +$177 |
| $16 (-2%) | +$8 | +$60 | +$127 | +$227 |
| $17 (0%) โ spot | +$24 | +$78 | +$146 | +$260 |
| $17 (+2%) | +$40 | +$94 | +$165 | +$293 |
| $17 (+5%) | +$62 | +$118 | +$191 | +$343 |
| $18 (+9%) โ target | +$89 | +$147 | +$221 | +$407 |
| $18 (+10%) | +$97 | +$154 | +$229 | +$407 |
| $19 (+15%) | +$128 | +$186 | +$262 | +$407 |
| $20 (+20%) | +$156 | +$215 | +$289 | +$407 |
Uses CIFR's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.