Target Price Playground
CIFR
$16.53
๐ข
CIFR IV: 98.5% โ LOW
(-25.5% vs 30d avg of 132.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $16 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $17 ยท Jul '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $3.26 ยท ฮ -0.39
SHORT PUT ยท $16 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $2.22 ยท ฮ -0.35
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If CIFR hits $16 by Jun 19: the diagonal put spread returns +$126 (121.0%) on $104 risked, vs $-103 (-6.2%) for 100 shares on $1,653. Options give 19.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CIFR is at $16. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if CIFR hits $16 by Jun 19
+$126
+121.0% on $104 risked
Max Profit
+$124
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$56
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$18.71
+13.19% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
89%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-3.71 / 0.28 / 0.61
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| CIFR Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $13 (-20%) | +$8 | +$16 | +$29 | +$43 |
| $14 (-15%) | +$7 | +$16 | +$31 | +$68 |
| $15 (-10%) | +$5 | +$14 | +$31 | +$99 |
| $16 (-6%) โ target | +$4 | +$13 | +$29 | +$127 |
| $16 (-5%) | +$3 | +$12 | +$28 | +$116 |
| $16 (-2%) | +$2 | +$10 | +$26 | +$92 |
| $17 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$8 | +$24 | +$77 |
| $17 (+2%) | -$1 | +$7 | +$21 | +$63 |
| $17 (+5%) | -$3 | +$4 | +$17 | +$44 |
| $18 (+10%) | -$7 | -$1 | +$10 | +$16 |
| $19 (+15%) | -$11 | -$6 | +$1 | -$8 |
| $20 (+20%) | -$15 | -$12 | -$8 | -$27 |
Uses CIFR's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.