Target Price Playground
CIFR
$16.53
๐ข
CIFR IV: 98.5% โ LOW
(-25.5% vs 30d avg of 132.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $19 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $17 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $2.93 ยท ฮ 0.6
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If CIFR hits $19 by Jun 19: the long call returns $-93 (-31.8%) on $293 risked, vs +$197 (11.9%) for 100 shares on $1,653. Options give 2.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CIFR is at $19. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if CIFR hits $19 by Jun 19
$-93
-31.8% on $293 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$293
Premium paid
Break-even
$19.43
+17.55% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
79%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
59.55 / -2.18 / 2.74
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| CIFR Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $13 (-20%) | -$165 | -$205 | -$252 | -$293 |
| $14 (-15%) | -$130 | -$175 | -$229 | -$293 |
| $15 (-10%) | -$91 | -$139 | -$200 | -$293 |
| $16 (-5%) | -$47 | -$98 | -$164 | -$293 |
| $16 (-2%) | -$19 | -$71 | -$139 | -$293 |
| $17 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | -$53 | -$121 | -$290 |
| $17 (+2%) | +$20 | -$33 | -$102 | -$257 |
| $17 (+5%) | +$51 | -$2 | -$72 | -$207 |
| $18 (+10%) | +$105 | +$51 | -$17 | -$125 |
| $19 (+12%) โ target | +$127 | +$73 | +$6 | -$93 |
| $19 (+15%) | +$163 | +$110 | +$43 | -$42 |
| $20 (+20%) | +$223 | +$171 | +$108 | +$41 |
Uses CIFR's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.