Target Price Playground
CIFR
$16.53
๐ข
CIFR IV: 98.5% โ LOW
(-25.5% vs 30d avg of 132.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $15 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $17 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $2.76 ยท ฮ -0.4
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If CIFR hits $15 by Jun 19: the long put returns $-76 (-27.7%) on $276 risked, vs $-203 (-12.3%) for 100 shares on $1,653. Options give 2.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CIFR is at $15. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if CIFR hits $15 by Jun 19
$-76
-27.7% on $276 risked
Max Profit
+$1,374
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$276
Premium paid
Break-even
$13.74
-16.91% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
78%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-40.45 / -1.97 / 2.74
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| CIFR Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $13 (-20%) | +$167 | +$131 | +$88 | +$52 |
| $14 (-15%) | +$118 | +$78 | +$28 | -$31 |
| $15 (-12%) โ target | +$94 | +$52 | -$2 | -$76 |
| $15 (-10%) | +$75 | +$31 | -$26 | -$114 |
| $16 (-5%) | +$36 | -$11 | -$72 | -$196 |
| $16 (-2%) | +$14 | -$34 | -$97 | -$246 |
| $17 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | -$48 | -$112 | -$276 |
| $17 (+2%) | -$13 | -$61 | -$126 | -$276 |
| $17 (+5%) | -$31 | -$81 | -$145 | -$276 |
| $18 (+10%) | -$59 | -$109 | -$173 | -$276 |
| $19 (+15%) | -$85 | -$134 | -$195 | -$276 |
| $20 (+20%) | -$107 | -$155 | -$213 | -$276 |
Uses CIFR's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.