Target Price Playground
CIFR
$16.53
๐ข
CIFR IV: 98.5% โ LOW
(-25.5% vs 30d avg of 132.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $18 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $16.53 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $16 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $2.22 ยท ฮ -0.35
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If CIFR hits $18 by Jun 19: the protective put returns $-75 (-4.0%) on $1,875 risked, vs +$147 (8.9%) for 100 shares on $1,653. Options give 0.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CIFR is at $18. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if CIFR hits $18 by Jun 19
$-75
-4.0% on $1,875 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$325
Put floors you at $16
Break-even
$18.75
+13.43% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
84%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
64.98 / -1.9 / 2.62
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| CIFR Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $13 (-20%) | -$184 | -$222 | -$269 | -$325 |
| $14 (-15%) | -$144 | -$185 | -$239 | -$325 |
| $15 (-10%) | -$100 | -$144 | -$202 | -$325 |
| $16 (-5%) | -$52 | -$98 | -$158 | -$305 |
| $16 (-2%) | -$21 | -$67 | -$128 | -$255 |
| $17 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | -$46 | -$107 | -$222 |
| $17 (+2%) | +$22 | -$25 | -$85 | -$189 |
| $17 (+5%) | +$56 | +$9 | -$50 | -$139 |
| $18 (+9%) โ target | +$101 | +$55 | -$3 | -$75 |
| $18 (+10%) | +$114 | +$68 | +$11 | -$57 |
| $19 (+15%) | +$175 | +$131 | +$78 | +$26 |
| $20 (+20%) | +$240 | +$197 | +$148 | +$109 |
Uses CIFR's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.