Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If CMCSA hits $29 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$78 (3.1%) on $-78 credit (max loss $2,522), vs +$107 (3.8%) for 100 shares on $2,793. Options give 0.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CMCSA is at $29. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| CMCSA Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $22 (-20%) | -$288 | -$284 | -$282 | -$288 |
| $24 (-15%) | -$179 | -$166 | -$153 | -$148 |
| $25 (-10%) | -$90 | -$71 | -$46 | -$8 |
| $27 (-5%) | -$25 | -$4 | +$24 | +$78 |
| $27 (-2%) | +$4 | +$24 | +$49 | +$78 |
| $28 (0%) โ spot | +$20 | +$38 | +$60 | +$78 |
| $28 (+2%) | +$32 | +$49 | +$67 | +$78 |
| $29 (+4%) โ target | +$42 | +$56 | +$71 | +$78 |
| $29 (+5%) | +$47 | +$60 | +$73 | +$78 |
| $31 (+10%) | +$62 | +$71 | +$77 | +$78 |
| $32 (+15%) | +$71 | +$75 | +$78 | +$78 |
| $34 (+20%) | +$75 | +$77 | +$78 | +$78 |