Target Price Playground
COLD
$12.01
๐ข
COLD IV: 47.3% โ LOW
(-21.1% vs 30d avg of 59.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $14 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $12 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $1.02 ยท ฮ 0.56
SHORT CALL ยท $13 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $0.62 ยท ฮ 0.4
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If COLD hits $14 by Jun 19: the bull call spread returns +$60 (152.5%) on $40 risked, vs +$149 (12.4%) for 100 shares on $1,201. Options give 12.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if COLD is at $14. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if COLD hits $14 by Jun 19
+$60
+152.5% on $40 risked
Max Profit
+$60
If the stock โฅ $13 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$40
Net debit
Break-even
$12.40
+3.21% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
54%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
15.72 / -0.03 / 0.04
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| COLD Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $10 (-20%) | -$31 | -$35 | -$39 | -$40 |
| $10 (-15%) | -$26 | -$30 | -$36 | -$40 |
| $11 (-10%) | -$18 | -$22 | -$29 | -$40 |
| $11 (-5%) | -$10 | -$13 | -$19 | -$40 |
| $12 (-2%) | -$4 | -$6 | -$10 | -$40 |
| $12 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | -$1 | -$4 | -$39 |
| $12 (+2%) | +$3 | +$3 | +$2 | -$15 |
| $13 (+5%) | +$9 | +$10 | +$11 | +$21 |
| $13 (+10%) | +$18 | +$21 | +$26 | +$60 |
| $14 (+12%) โ target | +$22 | +$26 | +$33 | +$60 |
| $14 (+15%) | +$26 | +$31 | +$38 | +$60 |
| $14 (+20%) | +$33 | +$39 | +$47 | +$60 |
Uses COLD's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.