Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If COLD hits $13 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$47 (4.5%) on $-47 credit (max loss $1,053), vs +$49 (4.1%) for 100 shares on $1,201. Options give 1.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if COLD is at $13. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| COLD Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $10 (-20%) | -$116 | -$107 | -$97 | -$92 |
| $10 (-15%) | -$77 | -$65 | -$50 | -$32 |
| $11 (-10%) | -$45 | -$31 | -$13 | +$28 |
| $11 (-5%) | -$20 | -$5 | +$13 | +$47 |
| $12 (-2%) | -$7 | +$7 | +$24 | +$47 |
| $12 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | +$13 | +$30 | +$47 |
| $12 (+2%) | +$6 | +$19 | +$34 | +$47 |
| $13 (+4%) โ target | +$12 | +$24 | +$38 | +$47 |
| $13 (+10%) | +$25 | +$34 | +$43 | +$47 |
| $14 (+15%) | +$32 | +$40 | +$46 | +$47 |
| $14 (+20%) | +$37 | +$43 | +$46 | +$47 |