Target Price Playground
COLD
$12.01
๐ข
COLD IV: 47.3% โ LOW
(-21.1% vs 30d avg of 59.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $14 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $12 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $1.02 ยท ฮ 0.56
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If COLD hits $14 by Jun 19: the long call returns +$48 (47.8%) on $102 risked, vs +$149 (12.4%) for 100 shares on $1,201. Options give 3.9ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if COLD is at $14. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if COLD hits $14 by Jun 19
+$48
+47.8% on $102 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$102
Premium paid
Break-even
$13.02
+8.37% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
54%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
55.8 / -0.78 / 2.03
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| COLD Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $10 (-20%) | -$86 | -$94 | -$100 | -$102 |
| $10 (-15%) | -$73 | -$85 | -$97 | -$102 |
| $11 (-10%) | -$55 | -$70 | -$88 | -$102 |
| $11 (-5%) | -$31 | -$49 | -$70 | -$102 |
| $12 (-2%) | -$13 | -$32 | -$55 | -$102 |
| $12 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | -$19 | -$43 | -$101 |
| $12 (+2%) | +$13 | -$6 | -$30 | -$77 |
| $13 (+5%) | +$36 | +$17 | -$6 | -$41 |
| $13 (+10%) | +$77 | +$60 | +$39 | +$19 |
| $14 (+12%) โ target | +$99 | +$82 | +$63 | +$48 |
| $14 (+15%) | +$123 | +$108 | +$91 | +$79 |
| $14 (+20%) | +$173 | +$159 | +$146 | +$139 |
Uses COLD's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.