Target Price Playground
COST
$998.47
๐ข
COST IV: 24.8% โ LOW
(-40.9% vs 30d avg of 42.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $880 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $1000 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $38.22 ยท ฮ -0.47
SHORT PUT ยท $920 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $12.81 ยท ฮ -0.2
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If COST hits $880 by Jun 19: the bear put spread returns +$5,459 (214.8%) on $2,541 risked, vs $-11,847 (-11.9%) for 100 shares on $99,847. Options give 18.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if COST is at $880. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if COST hits $880 by Jun 19
+$5,459
+214.8% on $2,541 risked
Max Profit
+$5,459
If the stock โค $920 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$2,541
Net debit
Break-even
$974.59
-2.39% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
27%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-27.07 / -5.97 / 62.06
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| COST Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $799 (-20%) | +$5,000 | +$5,233 | +$5,411 | +$5,459 |
| $849 (-15%) | +$4,311 | +$4,687 | +$5,160 | +$5,459 |
| $880 (-12%) โ target | +$3,635 | +$4,021 | +$4,631 | +$5,459 |
| $899 (-10%) | +$3,154 | +$3,499 | +$4,101 | +$5,459 |
| $949 (-5%) | +$1,691 | +$1,785 | +$1,958 | +$2,604 |
| $979 (-2%) | +$799 | +$709 | +$506 | -$391 |
| $998 (0%) โ spot | +$241 | +$46 | -$354 | -$2,388 |
| $1018 (+2%) | -$269 | -$543 | -$1,062 | -$2,541 |
| $1048 (+5%) | -$924 | -$1,258 | -$1,805 | -$2,541 |
| $1098 (+10%) | -$1,706 | -$2,011 | -$2,369 | -$2,541 |
| $1148 (+15%) | -$2,154 | -$2,356 | -$2,513 | -$2,541 |
| $1198 (+20%) | -$2,379 | -$2,486 | -$2,538 | -$2,541 |
Uses COST's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.