Target Price Playground

Templates Custom Builder
COST
$998.47
๐ŸŸข
COST IV: 24.8% โ€” LOW (-40.9% vs 30d avg of 42.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ€” good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection If price hits $950 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest Coming soon
Signal Backtest Coming soon

๐Ÿ“‹ Strategy

Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.

๐ŸŽฏ Target

67d from today

โš™๏ธ Legs

LONG PUT ยท $1000 ยท Jul '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $43.8 ยท ฮ” -0.46
SHORT PUT ยท $950 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $20.1 ยท ฮ” -0.28
P&L at Expiry Now $998 Target $950 $699 $998 $1298
Stock (100 sh) Diagonal Put Spread Now Target
๐Ÿ’ก Stock vs Options at Target

If COST hits $950 by Jun 19: the diagonal put spread returns +$3,132 (132.2%) on $2,370 risked, vs $-4,847 (-4.9%) for 100 shares on $99,847. Options give 27.0ร— capital efficiency.

๐Ÿ“… Expiry

Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if COST is at $950. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.

๐Ÿ“Š Projected Return

P&L if COST hits $950 by Jun 19
+$3,132
+132.2% on $2,370 risked
Max Profit
+$3,041
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โˆ’$2,370
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$1001.07
+0.26% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
65%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ” / ฮ˜ / V
-17.68 / 3.21 / 60.72
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐Ÿ’พ Log in to save ๐Ÿ“Š My Saved Strategies

๐Ÿ“‹ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)

Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ€” ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โ‰ฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.

๐Ÿ“Š P&L Scenarios โ€” what happens at different prices and dates

COST Price Today May 5 May 27 Jun 19 (exp)
$799 (-20%) +$2,223 +$2,280 +$2,294 +$2,287
$849 (-15%) +$2,074 +$2,224 +$2,343 +$2,307
$899 (-10%) +$1,702 +$1,936 +$2,259 +$2,480
$950 (-5%) โ† target +$1,049 +$1,253 +$1,607 +$3,262
$979 (-2%) +$600 +$731 +$951 +$1,354
$998 (0%) โ† spot +$268 +$334 +$424 +$289
$1018 (+2%) -$64 -$66 -$108 -$547
$1048 (+5%) -$542 -$634 -$831 -$1,414
$1098 (+10%) -$1,222 -$1,398 -$1,681 -$2,107
$1148 (+15%) -$1,712 -$1,889 -$2,110 -$2,315
$1198 (+20%) -$2,022 -$2,156 -$2,284 -$2,361
Uses COST's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.