Target Price Playground
COST
$998.47
๐ข
COST IV: 24.8% โ LOW
(-40.9% vs 30d avg of 42.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $1120 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $1000 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $41.72 ยท ฮ 0.54
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If COST hits $1120 by Jun 19: the long call returns +$7,828 (187.6%) on $4,172 risked, vs +$12,153 (12.2%) for 100 shares on $99,847. Options give 15.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if COST is at $1120. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if COST hits $1120 by Jun 19
+$7,828
+187.6% on $4,172 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$4,172
Premium paid
Break-even
$1041.72
+4.33% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
26%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
54.18 / -34.96 / 168.35
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| COST Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $799 (-20%) | -$4,096 | -$4,156 | -$4,172 | -$4,172 |
| $849 (-15%) | -$3,854 | -$4,059 | -$4,163 | -$4,172 |
| $899 (-10%) | -$3,196 | -$3,662 | -$4,052 | -$4,172 |
| $949 (-5%) | -$1,838 | -$2,587 | -$3,435 | -$4,172 |
| $979 (-2%) | -$596 | -$1,459 | -$2,522 | -$4,172 |
| $998 (0%) โ spot | +$420 | -$481 | -$1,609 | -$4,172 |
| $1018 (+2%) | +$1,584 | +$678 | -$445 | -$2,328 |
| $1048 (+5%) | +$3,586 | +$2,727 | +$1,723 | +$667 |
| $1098 (+10%) | +$7,499 | +$6,803 | +$6,119 | +$5,660 |
| $1120 (+12%) โ target | +$9,371 | +$8,756 | +$8,194 | +$7,828 |
| $1148 (+15%) | +$11,923 | +$11,404 | +$10,964 | +$10,652 |
| $1198 (+20%) | +$16,648 | +$16,255 | +$15,931 | +$15,644 |
Uses COST's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.