Target Price Playground
COST
$998.47
๐ข
COST IV: 24.8% โ LOW
(-40.9% vs 30d avg of 42.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $880 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $1000 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $38.22 ยท ฮ -0.47
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If COST hits $880 by Jun 19: the long put returns +$8,178 (214.0%) on $3,822 risked, vs $-11,847 (-11.9%) for 100 shares on $99,847. Options give 18.0ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if COST is at $880. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if COST hits $880 by Jun 19
+$8,178
+214.0% on $3,822 risked
Max Profit
+$96,178
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$3,822
Premium paid
Break-even
$961.78
-3.67% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
27%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-46.63 / -27.61 / 168.29
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| COST Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $799 (-20%) | +$15,554 | +$15,763 | +$16,017 | +$16,300 |
| $849 (-15%) | +$10,804 | +$10,868 | +$11,034 | +$11,308 |
| $880 (-12%) โ target | +$8,019 | +$7,930 | +$7,946 | +$8,178 |
| $899 (-10%) | +$6,469 | +$6,273 | +$6,153 | +$6,316 |
| $949 (-5%) | +$2,835 | +$2,355 | +$1,777 | +$1,323 |
| $979 (-2%) | +$1,081 | +$487 | -$305 | -$1,672 |
| $998 (0%) โ spot | +$100 | -$531 | -$1,390 | -$3,669 |
| $1018 (+2%) | -$733 | -$1,369 | -$2,222 | -$3,822 |
| $1048 (+5%) | -$1,726 | -$2,316 | -$3,049 | -$3,822 |
| $1098 (+10%) | -$2,805 | -$3,232 | -$3,647 | -$3,822 |
| $1148 (+15%) | -$3,373 | -$3,623 | -$3,793 | -$3,822 |
| $1198 (+20%) | -$3,641 | -$3,764 | -$3,819 | -$3,822 |
Uses COST's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.