Target Price Playground
COST
$998.47
๐ข
COST IV: 24.8% โ LOW
(-40.9% vs 30d avg of 42.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $1100 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $998.47 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $950 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $20.1 ยท ฮ -0.28
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If COST hits $1100 by Jun 19: the protective put returns +$8,143 (8.0%) on $101,857 risked, vs +$10,153 (10.2%) for 100 shares on $99,847. Options give 0.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if COST is at $1100. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if COST hits $1100 by Jun 19
+$8,143
+8.0% on $101,857 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$6,857
Put floors you at $950
Break-even
$1018.57
+2.01% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
34%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
71.73 / -24.74 / 140.19
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| COST Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $799 (-20%) | -$7,392 | -$7,301 | -$7,121 | -$6,857 |
| $849 (-15%) | -$6,804 | -$6,961 | -$7,036 | -$6,857 |
| $899 (-10%) | -$5,509 | -$5,953 | -$6,479 | -$6,857 |
| $949 (-5%) | -$3,276 | -$3,876 | -$4,691 | -$6,857 |
| $979 (-2%) | -$1,470 | -$2,064 | -$2,843 | -$4,007 |
| $998 (0%) โ spot | -$88 | -$643 | -$1,325 | -$2,010 |
| $1018 (+2%) | +$1,418 | +$923 | +$366 | -$13 |
| $1048 (+5%) | +$3,872 | +$3,486 | +$3,122 | +$2,982 |
| $1100 (+10%) โ target | +$8,503 | +$8,293 | +$8,161 | +$8,143 |
| $1148 (+15%) | +$13,108 | +$13,009 | +$12,969 | +$12,967 |
| $1198 (+20%) | +$18,008 | +$17,969 | +$17,959 | +$17,959 |
Uses COST's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.