Target Price Playground
COST
$998.47
๐ข
COST IV: 24.8% โ LOW
(-40.9% vs 30d avg of 42.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $1080 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $998.47 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $1080 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $12.57 ยท ฮ 0.24
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If COST hits $1080 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$9,410 (9.5%) on $98,590 risked, vs +$8,153 (8.2%) for 100 shares on $99,847. Options give 1.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if COST is at $1080. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if COST hits $1080 by Jun 19
+$9,410
+9.5% on $98,590 risked
Max Profit
+$9,410
If the stock โฅ $1080 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$98,590
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$985.90
-1.26% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
45%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
75.67 / 25.03 / -123.33
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| COST Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $799 (-20%) | -$18,721 | -$18,713 | -$18,712 | -$18,712 |
| $849 (-15%) | -$13,774 | -$13,729 | -$13,720 | -$13,720 |
| $899 (-10%) | -$8,950 | -$8,795 | -$8,732 | -$8,728 |
| $949 (-5%) | -$4,425 | -$4,048 | -$3,786 | -$3,735 |
| $979 (-2%) | -$1,956 | -$1,405 | -$917 | -$740 |
| $998 (0%) โ spot | -$445 | +$224 | +$897 | +$1,257 |
| $1018 (+2%) | +$942 | +$1,721 | +$2,583 | +$3,254 |
| $1048 (+5%) | +$2,770 | +$3,677 | +$4,777 | +$6,249 |
| $1080 (+8%) โ target | +$4,360 | +$5,334 | +$6,556 | +$9,410 |
| $1098 (+10%) | +$5,124 | +$6,103 | +$7,319 | +$9,410 |
| $1148 (+15%) | +$6,676 | +$7,560 | +$8,547 | +$9,410 |
| $1198 (+20%) | +$7,599 | +$8,305 | +$8,974 | +$9,410 |
Uses COST's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.