Target Price Playground
CRCL
$88.04
๐ข
CRCL IV: 81.4% โ LOW
(-25.5% vs 30d avg of 109.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $99 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $88 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $12.95 ยท ฮ 0.58
SHORT CALL ยท $95 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $10.4 ยท ฮ 0.5
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If CRCL hits $99 by Jun 19: the bull call spread returns +$445 (174.7%) on $255 risked, vs +$1,096 (12.4%) for 100 shares on $8,804. Options give 14.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CRCL is at $99. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if CRCL hits $99 by Jun 19
+$445
+174.7% on $255 risked
Max Profit
+$445
If the stock โฅ $95 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$255
Net debit
Break-even
$90.55
+2.85% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
73%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
8.36 / -0.02 / -0.75
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| CRCL Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $70 (-20%) | -$123 | -$146 | -$190 | -$255 |
| $75 (-15%) | -$90 | -$109 | -$150 | -$255 |
| $79 (-10%) | -$54 | -$67 | -$100 | -$255 |
| $84 (-5%) | -$17 | -$23 | -$43 | -$255 |
| $86 (-2%) | +$5 | +$4 | -$6 | -$255 |
| $88 (0%) โ spot | +$20 | +$22 | +$19 | -$251 |
| $90 (+2%) | +$35 | +$40 | +$44 | -$75 |
| $92 (+5%) | +$57 | +$67 | +$82 | +$189 |
| $97 (+10%) | +$92 | +$111 | +$143 | +$445 |
| $99 (+12%) โ target | +$109 | +$131 | +$171 | +$445 |
| $101 (+15%) | +$126 | +$152 | +$199 | +$445 |
| $106 (+20%) | +$158 | +$190 | +$248 | +$445 |
Uses CRCL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.