Target Price Playground
CRCL
$88.04
๐ข
CRCL IV: 81.4% โ LOW
(-25.5% vs 30d avg of 109.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $77 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $88 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $12.18 ยท ฮ -0.42
SHORT PUT ยท $81 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $8.59 ยท ฮ -0.33
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If CRCL hits $77 by Jun 19: the bear put spread returns +$341 (94.9%) on $359 risked, vs $-1,104 (-12.5%) for 100 shares on $8,804. Options give 7.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CRCL is at $77. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if CRCL hits $77 by Jun 19
+$341
+94.9% on $359 risked
Max Profit
+$341
If the stock โค $81 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$359
Net debit
Break-even
$84.41
-4.12% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
73%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-8.68 / -0.52 / 1.04
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| CRCL Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $70 (-20%) | +$158 | +$178 | +$219 | +$341 |
| $75 (-15%) | +$119 | +$131 | +$162 | +$341 |
| $77 (-13%) โ target | +$99 | +$108 | +$130 | +$341 |
| $79 (-10%) | +$79 | +$83 | +$97 | +$341 |
| $84 (-5%) | +$39 | +$34 | +$28 | +$77 |
| $86 (-2%) | +$15 | +$5 | -$12 | -$187 |
| $88 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | -$14 | -$38 | -$359 |
| $90 (+2%) | -$15 | -$32 | -$64 | -$359 |
| $92 (+5%) | -$37 | -$59 | -$101 | -$359 |
| $97 (+10%) | -$72 | -$101 | -$156 | -$359 |
| $101 (+15%) | -$105 | -$140 | -$203 | -$359 |
| $106 (+20%) | -$135 | -$174 | -$241 | -$359 |
Uses CRCL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.