Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If CRCL hits $92 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$859 (11.9%) on $-859 credit (max loss $7,241), vs +$396 (4.5%) for 100 shares on $8,804. Options give 2.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CRCL is at $92. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| CRCL Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $70 (-20%) | -$787 | -$624 | -$423 | -$198 |
| $75 (-15%) | -$549 | -$369 | -$136 | +$242 |
| $79 (-10%) | -$340 | -$148 | +$106 | +$683 |
| $84 (-5%) | -$158 | +$40 | +$300 | +$859 |
| $86 (-2%) | -$61 | +$138 | +$397 | +$859 |
| $88 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | +$198 | +$453 | +$859 |
| $90 (+2%) | +$56 | +$253 | +$504 | +$859 |
| $92 (+4%) โ target | +$123 | +$317 | +$560 | +$859 |
| $97 (+10%) | +$251 | +$436 | +$657 | +$859 |
| $101 (+15%) | +$350 | +$524 | +$720 | +$859 |
| $106 (+20%) | +$433 | +$595 | +$764 | +$859 |