Target Price Playground
CRCL
$88.04
๐ข
CRCL IV: 81.4% โ LOW
(-25.5% vs 30d avg of 109.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $95 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $88.04 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $95 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $10.4 ยท ฮ 0.5
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If CRCL hits $95 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$1,736 (22.4%) on $7,764 risked, vs +$696 (7.9%) for 100 shares on $8,804. Options give 2.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CRCL is at $95. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if CRCL hits $95 by Jun 19
+$1,736
+22.4% on $7,764 risked
Max Profit
+$1,736
If the stock โฅ $95 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$7,764
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$77.64
-11.81% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
83%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
50.25 / 9.72 / -15.48
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| CRCL Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $70 (-20%) | -$1,068 | -$924 | -$784 | -$721 |
| $75 (-15%) | -$757 | -$585 | -$399 | -$281 |
| $79 (-10%) | -$472 | -$274 | -$43 | +$160 |
| $84 (-5%) | -$213 | +$7 | +$277 | +$600 |
| $86 (-2%) | -$70 | +$161 | +$451 | +$864 |
| $88 (0%) โ spot | +$20 | +$258 | +$559 | +$1,040 |
| $90 (+2%) | +$107 | +$350 | +$660 | +$1,216 |
| $92 (+5%) | +$230 | +$479 | +$801 | +$1,480 |
| $95 (+8%) โ target | +$341 | +$595 | +$923 | +$1,736 |
| $97 (+10%) | +$416 | +$672 | +$1,003 | +$1,736 |
| $101 (+15%) | +$581 | +$840 | +$1,169 | +$1,736 |
| $106 (+20%) | +$727 | +$983 | +$1,302 | +$1,736 |
Uses CRCL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.