Target Price Playground
CRCL
$88.04
๐ข
CRCL IV: 83.0% โ LOW
(-24.0% vs 30d avg of 109.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $84 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $88 ยท Jul '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $14.37 ยท ฮ -0.4
SHORT PUT ยท $84 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $10.05 ยท ฮ -0.37
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If CRCL hits $84 by Jun 19: the diagonal put spread returns +$564 (130.7%) on $432 risked, vs $-404 (-4.6%) for 100 shares on $8,804. Options give 28.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CRCL is at $84. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if CRCL hits $84 by Jun 19
+$564
+130.7% on $432 risked
Max Profit
+$560
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$284
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$98.41
+11.78% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
90%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-3.45 / 1.33 / 3.16
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| CRCL Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $70 (-20%) | +$29 | +$61 | +$107 | +$108 |
| $75 (-15%) | +$28 | +$66 | +$128 | +$216 |
| $79 (-10%) | +$23 | +$63 | +$136 | +$362 |
| $84 (-5%) โ target | +$12 | +$52 | +$127 | +$564 |
| $86 (-2%) | +$6 | +$44 | +$117 | +$449 |
| $88 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | +$37 | +$107 | +$368 |
| $90 (+2%) | -$6 | +$29 | +$95 | +$292 |
| $92 (+5%) | -$17 | +$16 | +$75 | +$189 |
| $97 (+10%) | -$36 | -$10 | +$33 | +$44 |
| $101 (+15%) | -$57 | -$38 | -$13 | -$71 |
| $106 (+20%) | -$79 | -$68 | -$61 | -$162 |
Uses CRCL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.