Target Price Playground
CRCL
$88.04
๐ข
CRCL IV: 83.0% โ LOW
(-24.0% vs 30d avg of 109.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $99 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $88 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $12.95 ยท ฮ 0.58
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If CRCL hits $99 by Jun 19: the long call returns $-195 (-15.0%) on $1,295 risked, vs +$1,096 (12.4%) for 100 shares on $8,804. Options give 1.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CRCL is at $99. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if CRCL hits $99 by Jun 19
$-195
-15.0% on $1,295 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$1,295
Premium paid
Break-even
$100.95
+14.66% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
73%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
58.11 / -9.74 / 14.74
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| CRCL Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $70 (-20%) | -$817 | -$983 | -$1,167 | -$1,295 |
| $75 (-15%) | -$653 | -$845 | -$1,072 | -$1,295 |
| $79 (-10%) | -$462 | -$673 | -$937 | -$1,295 |
| $84 (-5%) | -$244 | -$470 | -$760 | -$1,295 |
| $86 (-2%) | -$101 | -$333 | -$633 | -$1,295 |
| $88 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | -$236 | -$540 | -$1,291 |
| $90 (+2%) | +$104 | -$134 | -$440 | -$1,115 |
| $92 (+5%) | +$267 | +$28 | -$279 | -$851 |
| $97 (+10%) | +$556 | +$318 | +$20 | -$411 |
| $99 (+12%) โ target | +$705 | +$470 | +$178 | -$195 |
| $101 (+15%) | +$866 | +$633 | +$351 | +$30 |
| $106 (+20%) | +$1,192 | +$968 | +$708 | +$470 |
Uses CRCL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.