Target Price Playground
CRCL
$88.04
๐ข
CRCL IV: 81.4% โ LOW
(-25.5% vs 30d avg of 109.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $97 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $88.04 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $84 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $10.05 ยท ฮ -0.37
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If CRCL hits $97 by Jun 19: the protective put returns $-109 (-1.1%) on $9,809 risked, vs +$896 (10.2%) for 100 shares on $8,804. Options give 0.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CRCL is at $97. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if CRCL hits $97 by Jun 19
$-109
-1.1% on $9,809 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$1,409
Put floors you at $84
Break-even
$98.09
+11.42% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
78%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
63.06 / -8.43 / 14.23
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| CRCL Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $70 (-20%) | -$905 | -$1,060 | -$1,245 | -$1,409 |
| $75 (-15%) | -$720 | -$896 | -$1,119 | -$1,409 |
| $79 (-10%) | -$506 | -$698 | -$949 | -$1,409 |
| $84 (-5%) | -$265 | -$467 | -$734 | -$1,409 |
| $86 (-2%) | -$109 | -$313 | -$583 | -$1,181 |
| $88 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | -$205 | -$475 | -$1,005 |
| $90 (+2%) | +$113 | -$92 | -$361 | -$829 |
| $92 (+5%) | +$289 | +$85 | -$178 | -$565 |
| $97 (+10%) โ target | +$610 | +$411 | +$166 | -$109 |
| $101 (+15%) | +$927 | +$737 | +$512 | +$316 |
| $106 (+20%) | +$1,271 | +$1,092 | +$893 | +$756 |
Uses CRCL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.