Target Price Playground
CRCL
$88.04
๐ข
CRCL IV: 83.0% โ LOW
(-24.0% vs 30d avg of 109.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $100 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $88 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $12.95 ยท ฮ 0.58
LONG PUT ยท $88 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $12.18 ยท ฮ -0.42
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If CRCL hits $100 by Jun 19: the long straddle returns $-1,313 (-52.3%) on $2,513 risked, vs +$1,196 (13.6%) for 100 shares on $8,804. Options give 3.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CRCL is at $100. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if CRCL hits $100 by Jun 19
$-1,313
-52.3% on $2,513 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$2,513
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$113.13
+28.5% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
71%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
16.22 / -18.41 / 29.47
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| CRCL Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $70 (-20%) | +$128 | -$182 | -$525 | -$756 |
| $75 (-15%) | +$15 | -$344 | -$775 | -$1,196 |
| $79 (-10%) | -$43 | -$443 | -$946 | -$1,637 |
| $84 (-5%) | -$47 | -$476 | -$1,032 | -$2,077 |
| $86 (-2%) | -$24 | -$466 | -$1,042 | -$2,341 |
| $88 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | -$447 | -$1,031 | -$2,509 |
| $90 (+2%) | +$33 | -$419 | -$1,008 | -$2,333 |
| $92 (+5%) | +$95 | -$360 | -$949 | -$2,069 |
| $97 (+10%) | +$233 | -$219 | -$793 | -$1,629 |
| $100 (+14%) โ target | +$357 | -$88 | -$640 | -$1,313 |
| $101 (+15%) | +$411 | -$30 | -$572 | -$1,188 |
| $106 (+20%) | +$624 | +$200 | -$298 | -$748 |
Uses CRCL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.