Target Price Playground
CRCL
$88.04
๐ข
CRCL IV: 81.4% โ LOW
(-25.5% vs 30d avg of 109.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $77 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $88 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $12.18 ยท ฮ -0.42
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If CRCL hits $77 by Jun 19: the long put returns $-118 (-9.7%) on $1,218 risked, vs $-1,104 (-12.5%) for 100 shares on $8,804. Options give 0.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CRCL is at $77. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if CRCL hits $77 by Jun 19
$-118
-9.7% on $1,218 risked
Max Profit
+$7,582
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$1,218
Premium paid
Break-even
$75.82
-13.88% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
73%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-41.89 / -8.67 / 14.74
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| CRCL Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $70 (-20%) | +$945 | +$802 | +$642 | +$539 |
| $75 (-15%) | +$668 | +$501 | +$297 | +$99 |
| $77 (-13%) โ target | +$542 | +$364 | +$141 | -$118 |
| $79 (-10%) | +$419 | +$231 | -$9 | -$342 |
| $84 (-5%) | +$197 | -$6 | -$272 | -$782 |
| $86 (-2%) | +$76 | -$133 | -$409 | -$1,046 |
| $88 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | -$211 | -$492 | -$1,218 |
| $90 (+2%) | -$71 | -$285 | -$568 | -$1,218 |
| $92 (+5%) | -$172 | -$388 | -$670 | -$1,218 |
| $97 (+10%) | -$323 | -$537 | -$812 | -$1,218 |
| $101 (+15%) | -$455 | -$664 | -$922 | -$1,218 |
| $106 (+20%) | -$568 | -$768 | -$1,005 | -$1,218 |
Uses CRCL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.