Target Price Playground
CRDO
$119.59
๐ข
CRDO IV: 85.9% โ LOW
(-20.8% vs 30d avg of 108.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $105 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $120 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $21.72 ยท ฮ -0.44
SHORT PUT ยท $110 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $17.8 ยท ฮ -0.35
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If CRDO hits $105 by Jun 19: the bear put spread returns +$608 (155.1%) on $392 risked, vs $-1,459 (-12.2%) for 100 shares on $11,959. Options give 12.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CRDO is at $105. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if CRDO hits $105 by Jun 19
+$608
+155.1% on $392 risked
Max Profit
+$608
If the stock โค $110 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$392
Net debit
Break-even
$116.08
-2.94% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
75%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-8.56 / -0.7 / 0.94
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| CRDO Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $96 (-20%) | +$344 | +$370 | +$426 | +$608 |
| $102 (-15%) | +$291 | +$307 | +$347 | +$608 |
| $105 (-12%) โ target | +$260 | +$270 | +$298 | +$608 |
| $108 (-10%) | +$236 | +$241 | +$259 | +$608 |
| $114 (-5%) | +$182 | +$174 | +$166 | +$247 |
| $117 (-2%) | +$150 | +$135 | +$111 | -$112 |
| $120 (0%) โ spot | +$129 | +$110 | +$76 | -$351 |
| $122 (+2%) | +$109 | +$85 | +$41 | -$392 |
| $126 (+5%) | +$79 | +$48 | -$9 | -$392 |
| $132 (+10%) | +$31 | -$10 | -$86 | -$392 |
| $138 (+15%) | -$14 | -$63 | -$151 | -$392 |
| $144 (+20%) | -$56 | -$110 | -$206 | -$392 |
Uses CRDO's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.