Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If CRDO hits $125 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$1,780 (19.3%) on $-1,780 credit (max loss $9,220), vs +$541 (4.5%) for 100 shares on $11,959. Options give 4.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CRDO is at $125. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| CRDO Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $96 (-20%) | -$524 | -$289 | +$4 | +$347 |
| $102 (-15%) | -$207 | +$52 | +$388 | +$945 |
| $108 (-10%) | +$73 | +$348 | +$711 | +$1,543 |
| $114 (-5%) | +$318 | +$601 | +$974 | +$1,780 |
| $117 (-2%) | +$450 | +$735 | +$1,106 | +$1,780 |
| $120 (0%) โ spot | +$532 | +$816 | +$1,184 | +$1,780 |
| $122 (+2%) | +$610 | +$892 | +$1,254 | +$1,780 |
| $125 (+5%) โ target | +$701 | +$981 | +$1,332 | +$1,780 |
| $132 (+10%) | +$877 | +$1,146 | +$1,469 | +$1,780 |
| $138 (+15%) | +$1,015 | +$1,270 | +$1,560 | +$1,780 |
| $144 (+20%) | +$1,132 | +$1,370 | +$1,626 | +$1,780 |