Target Price Playground
CRDO
$119.59
๐ข
CRDO IV: 85.9% โ LOW
(-20.8% vs 30d avg of 108.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $115 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $120 ยท Jul '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $20.83 ยท ฮ -0.4
SHORT PUT ยท $115 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $17.5 ยท ฮ -0.39
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If CRDO hits $115 by Jun 19: the diagonal put spread returns +$1,058 (318.1%) on $333 risked, vs $-459 (-3.8%) for 100 shares on $11,959. Options give 83.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CRDO is at $115. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if CRDO hits $115 by Jun 19
+$1,058
+318.1% on $333 risked
Max Profit
+$1,052
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$89
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$148.88
+24.49% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
92%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-1.14 / 2.64 / 4.03
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| CRDO Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $96 (-20%) | +$276 | +$320 | +$385 | +$384 |
| $102 (-15%) | +$278 | +$331 | +$418 | +$537 |
| $108 (-10%) | +$275 | +$332 | +$435 | +$738 |
| $114 (-5%) | +$266 | +$324 | +$432 | +$991 |
| $115 (-4%) โ target | +$264 | +$321 | +$429 | +$1,057 |
| $117 (-2%) | +$259 | +$315 | +$422 | +$947 |
| $120 (0%) โ spot | +$253 | +$308 | +$411 | +$836 |
| $122 (+2%) | +$246 | +$299 | +$399 | +$732 |
| $126 (+5%) | +$234 | +$284 | +$375 | +$589 |
| $132 (+10%) | +$213 | +$255 | +$327 | +$387 |
| $138 (+15%) | +$188 | +$222 | +$270 | +$223 |
| $144 (+20%) | +$162 | +$185 | +$210 | +$93 |
Uses CRDO's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.