Target Price Playground
CRDO
$119.59
๐ข
CRDO IV: 85.9% โ LOW
(-20.8% vs 30d avg of 108.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $105 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $120 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $21.72 ยท ฮ -0.44
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If CRDO hits $105 by Jun 19: the long put returns $-672 (-30.9%) on $2,172 risked, vs $-1,459 (-12.2%) for 100 shares on $11,959. Options give 2.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CRDO is at $105. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if CRDO hits $105 by Jun 19
$-672
-30.9% on $2,172 risked
Max Profit
+$9,828
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$2,172
Premium paid
Break-even
$98.28
-17.82% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
75%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-43.52 / -12.84 / 20.07
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| CRDO Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $96 (-20%) | +$868 | +$659 | +$423 | +$261 |
| $102 (-15%) | +$498 | +$255 | -$40 | -$337 |
| $105 (-12%) โ target | +$306 | +$47 | -$278 | -$672 |
| $108 (-10%) | +$163 | -$107 | -$452 | -$935 |
| $114 (-5%) | -$136 | -$427 | -$808 | -$1,533 |
| $117 (-2%) | -$300 | -$599 | -$995 | -$1,892 |
| $120 (0%) โ spot | -$403 | -$707 | -$1,108 | -$2,131 |
| $122 (+2%) | -$501 | -$808 | -$1,213 | -$2,172 |
| $126 (+5%) | -$639 | -$949 | -$1,355 | -$2,172 |
| $132 (+10%) | -$847 | -$1,156 | -$1,554 | -$2,172 |
| $138 (+15%) | -$1,029 | -$1,332 | -$1,711 | -$2,172 |
| $144 (+20%) | -$1,187 | -$1,481 | -$1,833 | -$2,172 |
Uses CRDO's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.