Target Price Playground
CRDO
$119.59
๐ข
CRDO IV: 85.9% โ LOW
(-20.8% vs 30d avg of 108.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $130 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $119.59 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $115 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $17.5 ยท ฮ -0.39
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If CRDO hits $130 by Jun 19: the protective put returns $-709 (-5.2%) on $13,709 risked, vs +$1,041 (8.7%) for 100 shares on $11,959. Options give 0.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CRDO is at $130. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if CRDO hits $130 by Jun 19
$-709
-5.2% on $13,709 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$2,209
Put floors you at $115
Break-even
$137.09
+14.63% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
82%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
60.8 / -12.81 / 19.6
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| CRDO Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $96 (-20%) | -$1,479 | -$1,703 | -$1,969 | -$2,209 |
| $102 (-15%) | -$1,226 | -$1,478 | -$1,798 | -$2,209 |
| $108 (-10%) | -$935 | -$1,210 | -$1,569 | -$2,209 |
| $114 (-5%) | -$611 | -$900 | -$1,282 | -$2,209 |
| $117 (-2%) | -$400 | -$694 | -$1,083 | -$1,989 |
| $120 (0%) โ spot | -$253 | -$549 | -$939 | -$1,750 |
| $122 (+2%) | -$102 | -$399 | -$788 | -$1,511 |
| $126 (+5%) | +$134 | -$162 | -$545 | -$1,152 |
| $130 (+9%) โ target | +$439 | +$146 | -$224 | -$709 |
| $132 (+10%) | +$549 | +$258 | -$107 | -$554 |
| $138 (+15%) | +$988 | +$707 | +$369 | +$44 |
| $144 (+20%) | +$1,448 | +$1,181 | +$876 | +$642 |
Uses CRDO's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.